{"id":11153,"date":"2025-08-07T03:43:27","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T19:43:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fanyiming.life\/?p=11153"},"modified":"2025-12-21T01:03:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T17:03:00","slug":"%e7%8f%80%e5%b0%94%e7%9a%84%e5%b9%b2%e9%a2%84%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fanyiming.life\/?p=11153","title":{"rendered":"\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u6a21\u578b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u770b\u4e86\u201c\u5927\u95ee\u9898Dialectic\u201d\u7684\u65b0\u4e00\u671f\u2014\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/D0hkigxaqCQjA8nyCTto3g\">\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u5ba2\u89c2\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f11\u8c1f\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e3b\u89c2\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u8054\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5eb7\u5fb7\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5218\u6613\u65af\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662fIf not A, then not B\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u73c0\u5c14\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662fP\uff08Y|do\uff08X=x\uff09\uff09 \u2260 P\uff08Y\uff09<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u89c2\u70b9<a href=\"https:\/\/fanyiming.life\/?p=186\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"186\">\u4e00\u5ea6<\/a>\u8ba9\u6211\u9677\u5165\u865a\u65e0\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u72ac\u5112\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u540e\u9762\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u611f\u89c9\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u662f\u54f2\u5b66\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b9e\u7528\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e0d\u8fc7\u770b\u5230\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u6a21\u578b\u8ba9\u6211\u8033\u76ee\u4e00\u65b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u5c31\u662f\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u5417\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"866\" height=\"457\" src=\"https:\/\/fanym.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/20250807032259212.png?x-oss-process=style\/default\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fanym.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/20250807032259212.png?x-oss-process=style\/default 866w, https:\/\/fanym.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/20250807032259212-300x158.png?x-oss-process=style\/default 300w, https:\/\/fanym.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/20250807032259212-768x405.png?x-oss-process=style\/default 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 866px) 100vw, 866px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u6765\u770b\u6700\u5de6\u8fb9\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2aP\uff08Y|X\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0a\u8fc7\u4e2d\u5b66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u5b66\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u5c31\u662f\u5728X\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0cY\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u610f\u601d\u5c31\u662f\uff0cX\u5728\u591a\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4e0a\u662fY\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4e3e\u4f8b\u5b50\u8bf4\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u5728\u591a\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4e0a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u80ba\u764c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5199\u6210P\uff08\u80ba\u764c|\u5438\u70df\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u79d1\u7814\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f60\u628a\u4eba\u7fa4\u5206\u6210\u4e86\u4e24\u7ec4\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u662fX=\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5438\u70df\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ec4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caX=\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ec4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5927X=\u5c0fx\u6307\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5927X\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5982\u679cX\u662f\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u90a3\u5c0fx\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u6307\u5438\u70df\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5927X\u662f\u592a\u9633\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u5c0fx\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u6307\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6ca1\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u6765\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f60\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u597d\uff0c\u8bf4\u56de\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u4f60\u89c2\u5bdf\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u8005\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ec4\u60a3\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u8005\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ec4\u60a3\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f10%\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u8bf4\uff1a\u5438\u70df\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u5c31\u662f\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u80fd\u8fd9\u6837\u5417\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff1a\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u5e76\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u5355\u7eaf\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u5c31\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u6392\u9664\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\uff08Confounding Factor\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5e72\u6270\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u5e45\u793a\u610f\u56fe\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u7684\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0cX\u548cY\u4e4b\u95f4\u597d\u50cf\u6709\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662fX\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86Y\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u662fX\u548cY\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u539f\u56e0Z\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2aZ\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86X\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86Y\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2aZ\u5c31\u662f\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\uff0cZ\u6df7\u6742\u4e86X\u2192Y\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u62ff\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u662fX\u5438\u70df\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86Y\u80ba\u764c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u539f\u56e0Z\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u538b\u529b\u5927\uff0c\u538b\u529b\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u538b\u529b\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u80ba\u764c\u3002\u6216\u8005\u8fd9\u4e2aZ\u5e72\u8106\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u56e0\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u62bd\u70df\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u80ba\u764c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u6a21\u578b\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8003\u5bdf\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2a\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\u7ed9\u6392\u9664\u51fa\u53bb\uff0c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u6392\u9664\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50Z\uff0c\u5c31\u8d38\u7136\u8bf4\u5438\u70df\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u505a\u79d1\u7814\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5c31\u72af\u4e86\u6df7\u6742\u504f\u8bef\uff08Confounding 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